La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 25

Osasuna–Real Madrid

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'OsasunaA. Budimir (penalty)
73'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (assist: F. Valverde)
90'OsasunaRaúl García (assist: Raul Moro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Osasuna		Real Madrid
13	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
353	Passes	570
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Osasuna 1.04 · Real Madrid 1.72. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Osasuna 13 · Real Madrid 15; on target 2 and 5.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Quintero→

4.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Osasuna, 1.90 for Real Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (X2 — draw or Real Madrid win).
These values were computed from 1,382 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Osasuna to win19.7%

Draw23.8%

Real Madrid to win56.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Osasuna lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time46.0%

Real Madrid lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Osasuna ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Real Madrid ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1382 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Osasuna: at least 13Actual: 19
Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Osasuna: at least 3Actual: 3
Real Madrid: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Osasuna score1.04

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Madrid score1.72

Attack: Real Madrid score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–211.0%0–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.