La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 24

Levante–Valencia

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'ValenciaL. Ramazani (assist: L. Rioja)
84'ValenciaU. Sadiq (assist: Javi Guerra)
90+4'LevanteK. Arriaga · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Valencia
9	Shots	5
1	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
383	Passes	442
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.44 · Valencia 1.19. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Levante 9 · Valencia 5; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

M. Ortiz→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.6%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “Valencia to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Levante, 1.26 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,375 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win35.6%

Draw29.0%

Valencia to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levante lead at half-time32.9%

Level at half-time46.6%

Valencia lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead67.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1375 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 11Actual: 11
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Levante: at least 4Actual: 3
Valencia: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.44

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.19

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levante concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.2%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.