La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 24

Rayo Vallecano–Atletico Madrid

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'Rayo VallecanoF. Perez (assist: A. Rațiu)
45'Rayo VallecanoÓscar Valentín
76'Rayo VallecanoN. Mendy (assist: Álvaro García)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Atletico Madrid
13	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	8
3	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
354	Passes	486
286	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.04 · Atletico Madrid 1.37. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 13 · Atletico Madrid 9; on target 9 and 3.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

R. De Burgos→

3.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.63 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (X2 — draw or Atletico Madrid win).
These values were computed from 1,374 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win20.0%

Draw26.4%

Atletico Madrid to win53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time21.4%

Level at half-time47.1%

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.9%

X2 — level or Atletico Madrid ahead78.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1374 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 11Actual: 10
Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 4Actual: 4
Atletico Madrid: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.04

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.37

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%0–111.9%1–210.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.