La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 24

Real Madrid–Real Sociedad

4–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Real MadridGonzalo García (assist: T. Alexander-Arnold)
21'Real SociedadMikel Oyarzabal (penalty)
25'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (penalty)
31'Real MadridF. Valverde (assist: Álvaro Fernández)
48'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Real Sociedad
11	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	6
5	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
585	Passes	534
533	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 2.14 · Real Sociedad 0.77. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Real Madrid 11 · Real Sociedad 13; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

F. Maeso→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.9%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.28 for Real Madrid, 0.86 for Real Sociedad.
The highest double chance value is 88.8% (1X — Real Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,372 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win69.9%

Draw18.8%

Real Sociedad to win11.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Real Madrid lead at half-time53.3%

Level at half-time38.5%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time8.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level91.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Real Sociedad ahead46.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1372 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 10
Real Sociedad: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 5Actual: 4
Real Sociedad: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score2.14

Attack: Real Madrid score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Sociedad score0.77

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.5%2–110.7%1–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.