La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Atletico Madrid–Real Betis

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Real BetisAntony (assist: A. Ezzalzouli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Real Betis
10	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
6	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
678	Passes	371
605	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.81 · Real Betis 0.92. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Atletico Madrid 10 · Real Betis 8; on target 5 and 4.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Busquets→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Atletico Madrid, 0.93 for Real Betis.
The highest double chance value is 86.3% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,365 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win65.7%

Draw20.6%

Real Betis to win13.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	3

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time55.0%

Level at half-time37.3%

Real Betis lead at half-time7.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level92.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Real Betis ahead45.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1365 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 12Actual: 12
Real Betis: at least 9Actual: 3

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 6Actual: 7
Real Betis: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.81

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Betis score0.92

Attack: Real Betis score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.8%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.