La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 22

Osasuna–Villarreal

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'VillarrealGerard Moreno (penalty)
20'OsasunaVíctor Muñoz (assist: Rubén García)
45'OsasunaA. Budimir (assist: Moncayola)
70'VillarrealGerard Moreno (assist: N. Pépé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Osasuna		Villarreal
15	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
370	Passes	445
299	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Osasuna 1.25 · Villarreal 1.38. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Osasuna 15 · Villarreal 5; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

R. De Burgos→

3.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “Osasuna to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Osasuna, 1.36 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,351 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Osasuna to win34.8%

Draw28.0%

Villarreal to win37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Osasuna lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time45.3%

Villarreal lead at half-time22.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Osasuna ahead or level77.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1351 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 15
Villarreal: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Osasuna: at least 4Actual: 6
Villarreal: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Osasuna score1.25

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.38

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.2%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.