La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 21

Rayo Vallecano–Osasuna

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'OsasunaA. Budimir (assist: J. Herrando)
59'Rayo VallecanoP. Ciss (assist: I. Palazon)
90'OsasunaJ. Vertrouwd (own goal)
90'OsasunaAsier Osambela (assist: Moncayola)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Osasuna
11	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
456	Passes	226
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.37 · Osasuna 1.02. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 11 · Osasuna 14; on target 4 and 5.
Rayo Vallecano kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

M. Sesma→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.99 for Osasuna.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,340 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win43.1%

Draw30.0%

Osasuna to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time48.1%

Osasuna lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time51.9%

X2 — level or Osasuna ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1340 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 11Actual: 12
Osasuna: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 5Actual: 4
Osasuna: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.37

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Osasuna score1.02

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.4%0–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.