La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 20

Getafe–Valencia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Coliseum, Getafe

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'ValenciaCristian Rivero · red card
84'ValenciaJosé Gayà (assist: F. Ugrinic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Getafe		Valencia
14	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
349	Passes	305
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Getafe 1.12 · Valencia 1.01. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Getafe 14 · Valencia 7; on target 3 and 1.
Getafe kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

I. Diaz→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.8%: “Getafe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Getafe, 0.85 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (1X — Getafe win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,334 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Getafe to win38.8%

Draw33.5%

Valencia to win27.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Getafe lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time49.8%

Valencia lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Getafe ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.2%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1334 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Getafe: at least 13Actual: 8
Valencia: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Getafe: at least 4Actual: 9
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Getafe score1.12

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.01

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Getafe's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–015.1%0–014.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.