La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 20

Real Betis–Villarreal

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Real BetisA. Ruibal
76'VillarrealSanti Comesaña · red card
83'Real BetisPablo Fornals (assist: Antony)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Villarreal
15	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
543	Passes	356
463	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.48 · Villarreal 1.39. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Real Betis 15 · Villarreal 9; on target 6 and 3.
Real Betis kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

V. Garcia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “Villarreal to win” at 36.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Real Betis, 1.45 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,333 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win37.3%

Draw26.7%

Villarreal to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Betis lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Villarreal lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1333 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 10Actual: 14
Villarreal: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Real Betis: at least 5Actual: 2
Villarreal: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.48

Attack: Real Betis score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.39

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.