La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Rayo Vallecano–Mallorca

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Rayo VallecanoJ. de Frutos (assist: Álvaro García)
30'MallorcaV. Muriqi (assist: T. Lato)
42'Rayo VallecanoI. Palazon (penalty)
80'Rayo VallecanoÓscar Valentín · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Mallorca
14	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
371	Passes	321
284	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.42 · Mallorca 0.91. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 14 · Mallorca 9; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain→

4.39

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.8%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.80 for Mallorca.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,326 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win50.8%

Draw29.2%

Mallorca to win20.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time45.8%

Mallorca lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Mallorca ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1326 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 12Actual: 14
Mallorca: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 6Actual: 6
Mallorca: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.42

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mallorca's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mallorca score0.91

Attack: Mallorca score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.0%1–114.3%2–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.