La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Getafe–Real Sociedad

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 9 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Coliseum, Getafe

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'Real SociedadB. Mendez
90'GetafeJuanmi (assist: Mauro Arambarri)
90'Real SociedadJ. Aramburu (assist: T. Kubo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Getafe		Real Sociedad
6	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
4	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
330	Passes	444
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Getafe 1.06 · Real Sociedad 1.05. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Getafe 6 · Real Sociedad 12; on target 3 and 5.
Real Sociedad kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain→

4.21

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.89 for Getafe, 1.12 for Real Sociedad.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (X2 — draw or Real Sociedad win).
These values were computed from 1,321 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Getafe to win27.4%

Draw32.4%

Real Sociedad to win40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Getafe lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time48.4%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Getafe ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.6%

X2 — level or Real Sociedad ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1321 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Getafe: at least 13Actual: 17
Real Sociedad: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Getafe: at least 4Actual: 2
Real Sociedad: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Getafe score1.06

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.05

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Getafe's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–114.4%0–013.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.