La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 18

Real Sociedad–Atletico Madrid

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth (assist: G. Simeone)
55'Real SociedadG. Guedes (assist: T. Kubo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Atletico Madrid
18	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
414	Passes	506
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.08 · Atletico Madrid 1.40. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Real Sociedad 18 · Atletico Madrid 10; on target 8 and 2.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain→

4.37

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Real Sociedad, 1.70 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (X2 — draw or Atletico Madrid win).
These values were computed from 1,320 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win23.5%

Draw25.8%

Atletico Madrid to win50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad lead at half-time15.2%

Level at half-time42.5%

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time42.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level57.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Atletico Madrid ahead84.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1320 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 11
Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 6
Atletico Madrid: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.08

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.40

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–210.6%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.