La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 18

Elche–Villarreal

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'VillarrealAlberto Moleiro (assist: G. Mikautadze)
13'VillarrealG. Mikautadze (assist: N. Pépé)
30'ElcheMartim Neto (assist: Aleix Febas)
83'VillarrealAlfonso Pedraza (assist: Sergi Cardona)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Elche		Villarreal
15	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
78%	Possession	22%
775	Passes	220
707	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Elche 1.25 · Villarreal 1.49. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Elche 15 · Villarreal 12; on target 2 and 4.
Elche kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain→

4.81

yellows per match

0.41

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “Elche to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Elche, 1.54 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,314 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Elche to win30.5%

Draw26.9%

Villarreal to win42.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Elche lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time45.0%

Villarreal lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Elche ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1314 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Elche: at least 12Actual: 8
Villarreal: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Elche: at least 3Actual: 6
Villarreal: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Elche score1.25

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.49

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Elche's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.9%0–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.