La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 18

Celta Vigo–Valencia

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Celta VigoB. Iglesias (penalty)
59'Celta VigoB. Iglesias (assist: Pablo Durán)
70'ValenciaPepelu
83'Celta VigoJ. El Abdellaoui
90'Celta VigoHugo Álvarez (assist: I. Aspas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Valencia
12	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
394	Passes	574
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.53 · Valencia 0.95. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Celta Vigo 12 · Valencia 16; on target 6 and 5.
Valencia kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain→

3.88

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Celta Vigo, 0.95 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (1X — Celta Vigo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,312 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win48.1%

Draw28.5%

Valencia to win23.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Celta Vigo lead at half-time38.9%

Level at half-time44.7%

Valencia lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead61.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1312 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 10
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 2
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.53

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score0.95

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–012.5%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.