La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 17

Oviedo–Celta Vigo

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oviedo		Celta Vigo
10	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
6	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
485	Passes	398
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oviedo 1.01 · Celta Vigo 1.47. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Oviedo 10 · Celta Vigo 6; on target 3 and 2.
Oviedo kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain→

4.26

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Oviedo, 1.31 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (X2 — draw or Celta Vigo win).
These values were computed from 1,302 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oviedo to win26.7%

Draw29.9%

Celta Vigo to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Oviedo lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time46.0%

Celta Vigo lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Oviedo ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Celta Vigo ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1302 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oviedo: at least 11Actual: 14
Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Oviedo: at least 4Actual: 4
Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oviedo score1.01

Attack: Oviedo score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.47

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oviedo concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–112.5%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.