La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 16

Celta Vigo–Athletic Club

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Celta VigoWilliot Swedberg (assist: Javier Rueda)
55'Celta VigoJ. El Abdellaoui

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Athletic Club
5	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
507	Passes	492
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.27 · Athletic Club 1.13. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Celta Vigo 5 · Athletic Club 14; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

Alejandro Hernandez, Spain→

4.79

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “Celta Vigo to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Celta Vigo, 1.23 for Athletic Club.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,298 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win33.2%

Draw29.8%

Athletic Club to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Celta Vigo lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time47.0%

Athletic Club lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Athletic Club ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1298 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 11
Athletic Club: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 1
Athletic Club: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.27

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Athletic Club score1.13

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.5%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.