La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 16

Barcelona–Osasuna

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

70'BarcelonaRaphinha (assist: Pedri)
86'BarcelonaRaphinha

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Osasuna
24	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
14	Corners	1
2	Offsides	6
80%	Possession	20%
734	Passes	186
669	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 2.47 · Osasuna 0.72. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Barcelona 24 · Osasuna 3; on target 7 and 2.
Barcelona kept the ball more (80%).

Referee

Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain→

3.50

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.4%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.97 for Barcelona, 0.83 for Osasuna.
The highest double chance value is 93.8% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,295 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win81.4%

Draw12.4%

Osasuna to win6.2%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Barcelona lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time39.0%

Osasuna lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Barcelona ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Osasuna ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1295 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Barcelona: at least 9Actual: 5
Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Barcelona: at least 5Actual: 14
Osasuna: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score2.47

Attack: Barcelona score 84% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Osasuna score0.72

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.1%2–010.0%3–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.