La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 16

Atletico Madrid–Valencia

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Atletico MadridKoke
63'ValenciaL. Beltran (assist: A. Almeida)
74'Atletico MadridA. Griezmann (assist: Marc Pubill)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Valencia
10	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
447	Passes	516
373	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.94 · Valencia 0.72. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Atletico Madrid 10 · Valencia 13; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

César Soto Grado, Spain→

5.86

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.0%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Atletico Madrid, 0.74 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 91.3% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,293 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win74.0%

Draw17.2%

Valencia to win8.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time55.4%

Level at half-time37.7%

Valencia lead at half-time6.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level93.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead44.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1293 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 13
Valencia: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 6Actual: 5
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.94

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score0.72

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.9%2–110.2%3–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.