La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 16

Real Sociedad–Girona

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 12 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Real SociedadG. Guedes (assist: I. Zubeldia)
76'GironaV. Tsygankov (assist: A. Ounahi)
84'GironaV. Tsygankov (assist: Álex Moreno)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Girona
9	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
47%	Possession	53%
494	Passes	559
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.66 · Girona 0.94. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Real Sociedad 9 · Girona 14; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain→

3.86

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Real Sociedad, 0.97 for Girona.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — Real Sociedad win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,292 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win53.7%

Draw26.0%

Girona to win20.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Sociedad win or draw79.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Girona win46.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Real Sociedad lead at half-time30.8%

Level at half-time44.4%

Girona lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Girona ahead69.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1292 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 13Actual: 20
Girona: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 6Actual: 4
Girona: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.66

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Girona concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Girona score0.94

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–011.1%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1292 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 129 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.