La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 15

Real Madrid–Celta Vigo

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 9%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'Real MadridEndrick · red card
53'Celta VigoWilliot Swedberg (assist: B. Zaragoza)
64'Real MadridFran García · red card
90'Celta VigoWilliot Swedberg (assist: I. Aspas)
90+2'Real MadridÁlvaro Fernández · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Celta Vigo
23	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
585	Passes	447
532	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 2.21 · Celta Vigo 0.79. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Real Madrid 23 · Celta Vigo 7; on target 7 and 5.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain→

4.75

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.2%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.66 for Real Madrid, 0.87 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 91.5% (1X — Real Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,290 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win76.2%

Draw15.3%

Celta Vigo to win8.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

6	Yellow cards	1

3	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Madrid lead at half-time66.3%

Level at half-time29.9%

Celta Vigo lead at half-time3.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level96.2%

12 — not level at half-time70.1%

X2 — level or Celta Vigo ahead33.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1290 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 6
Celta Vigo: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 5Actual: 8
Celta Vigo: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score2.21

Attack: Real Madrid score 65% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score0.79

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.5%2–19.9%3–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.