La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Athletic Club–Real Madrid

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: T. Alexander-Arnold)
42'Real MadridE. Camavinga (assist: Kylian Mbappé)
59'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: Álvaro Fernández)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Real Madrid
9	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	8
7	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
375	Passes	641
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.20 · Real Madrid 1.40. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Athletic Club 9 · Real Madrid 13; on target 4 and 8.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain→

4.48

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Athletic Club, 1.66 for Real Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (X2 — draw or Real Madrid win).
These values were computed from 1,281 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win21.8%

Draw26.1%

Real Madrid to win52.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Athletic Club lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time46.0%

Real Madrid lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Real Madrid ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 13Actual: 15
Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 4

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 4Actual: 5
Real Madrid: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.20

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Madrid score1.40

Attack: Real Madrid score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.40 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.6%0–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.