La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 14

Real Sociedad–Villarreal

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'VillarrealAyoze Pérez (assist: Alfonso Pedraza)
57'VillarrealAlberto Moleiro (assist: Ayoze Pérez)
60'Real SociedadCarlos Soler (assist: T. Kubo)
87'Real SociedadBarrenetxea
90'VillarrealAlberto Moleiro

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Villarreal
18	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
530	Passes	358
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.27 · Villarreal 1.37. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Real Sociedad 18 · Villarreal 10; on target 7 and 5.
Real Sociedad kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

César Soto Grado, Spain→

4.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Real Sociedad, 1.41 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,275 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win33.9%

Draw27.8%

Villarreal to win38.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	8

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Real Sociedad lead at half-time19.0%

Level at half-time41.3%

Villarreal lead at half-time39.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level60.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead81.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1275 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 15
Villarreal: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 8
Villarreal: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.27

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.37

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.3%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.