La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 14

Atletico Madrid–Oviedo

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth (assist: D. Hancko)
26'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Oviedo
14	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
533	Passes	496
476	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 2.33 · Oviedo 0.50. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Atletico Madrid 14 · Oviedo 12; on target 8 and 1.

Referee

Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain→

3.88

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.9%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.40 for Atletico Madrid, 0.61 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 93.5% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,274 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win77.9%

Draw15.6%

Oviedo to win6.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw93.5%

12 — any result other than a draw84.4%

X2 — draw or Oviedo win22.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time57.3%

Level at half-time36.7%

Oviedo lead at half-time6.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level94.0%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead42.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1274 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 5
Oviedo: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 7Actual: 7
Oviedo: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score2.33

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.33 goals.

How many goals Oviedo score0.50

Attack: Oviedo score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.7%3–011.7%1–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1274 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 13 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.