La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 13

Real Betis–Girona

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'GironaV. Vanat (assist: Bryan Gil)
75'Real BetisV. Gómez (assist: Isco)
90+1'Real BetisAntony · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Girona
23	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	0
1	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
541	Passes	464
454	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.92 · Girona 0.88. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Real Betis 23 · Girona 11; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain→

4.71

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.8%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for Real Betis, 1.01 for Girona.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Real Betis win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,266 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win63.8%

Draw21.0%

Girona to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Real Betis lead at half-time51.2%

Level at half-time37.4%

Girona lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Girona ahead48.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1266 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 10Actual: 10
Girona: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Real Betis: at least 5
Girona: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.92

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Girona concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Girona score0.88

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.2%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.