La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 13

Barcelona–Athletic Club

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski
45'BarcelonaFerran Torres (assist: Lamine Yamal)
48'BarcelonaFermín (assist: Eric García)
54'Athletic ClubOihan Sancet · red card
90'BarcelonaFerran Torres (assist: Lamine Yamal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Athletic Club
19	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
7	Offsides	3
68%	Possession	32%
698	Passes	317
619	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 1.86 · Athletic Club 0.93. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Barcelona 19 · Athletic Club 13; on target 7 and 2.
Barcelona kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain→

3.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.9%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Barcelona, 1.00 for Athletic Club.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win67.9%

Draw19.0%

Athletic Club to win13.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Barcelona lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time44.1%

Athletic Club lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Barcelona ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Athletic Club ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Barcelona: at least 9Actual: 9
Athletic Club: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Barcelona: at least 5Actual: 5
Athletic Club: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score1.86

Attack: Barcelona score 74% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.86 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Athletic Club score0.93

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%2–09.8%1–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.