La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Celta Vigo–Barcelona

2–4

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski (penalty)
11'Celta VigoSergio Carreira (assist: B. Iglesias)
37'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski (assist: M. Rashford)
43'Celta VigoB. Iglesias (assist: Ferrán Jutglà)
45'BarcelonaLamine Yamal
73'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Barcelona
5	Shots	21
3	Shots on target	9
1	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
5	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
450	Passes	720
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.31 · Barcelona 1.70. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Celta Vigo 5 · Barcelona 21; on target 3 and 9.
Barcelona kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain→

3.81

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.5%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “Celta Vigo to win” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Celta Vigo, 2.19 for Barcelona.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,259 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win22.6%

Draw21.9%

Barcelona to win55.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–3

Celta Vigo lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time40.0%

Barcelona lead at half-time35.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level64.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Barcelona ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 13
Barcelona: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 2
Barcelona: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.31

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Barcelona score1.70

Attack: Barcelona score 70% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.2%1–19.4%1–37.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.