La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Espanyol–Villarreal

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'VillarrealGerard Moreno (assist: Santi Comesaña)
57'VillarrealAlberto Moleiro

Match statistics

Match statistics
Espanyol		Villarreal
14	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
563	Passes	483
499	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Espanyol 1.34 · Villarreal 1.43. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Espanyol 14 · Villarreal 9; on target 3 and 3.
Espanyol kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Alejandro Hernandez, Spain→

4.92

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “Espanyol to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Espanyol, 1.40 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,254 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Espanyol to win34.0%

Draw27.8%

Villarreal to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Espanyol win or draw61.7%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Villarreal win66.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Espanyol lead at half-time20.3%

Level at half-time43.2%

Villarreal lead at half-time36.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Espanyol ahead or level63.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead79.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1254 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Espanyol: at least 11Actual: 9
Villarreal: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Espanyol: at least 4Actual: 4
Villarreal: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Espanyol score1.34

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.43

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.3%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1254 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.