La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Atletico Madrid–Levante

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Atletico MadridDela (own goal)
21'LevanteManu Sánchez (assist: Jon Ander Olasagasti)
61'Atletico MadridA. Griezmann (assist: Marcos Llorente)
80'Atletico MadridA. Griezmann

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Levante
25	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	3
16	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
21	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
74%	Possession	26%
630	Passes	212
559	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 2.27 · Levante 0.75. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Atletico Madrid 25 · Levante 6; on target 10 and 3.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain→

4.40

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.9%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.65 for Atletico Madrid, 0.74 for Levante.
The highest double chance value is 93.2% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,253 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win78.9%

Draw14.3%

Levante to win6.8%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time53.9%

Level at half-time36.8%

Levante lead at half-time9.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level90.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Levante ahead46.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1253 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 5
Levante: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 6Actual: 21
Levante: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score2.27

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Levante concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.27 goals.

How many goals Levante score0.75

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%3–010.8%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.