La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Sevilla–Osasuna

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'SevillaR. Vargas (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sevilla		Osasuna
10	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
6	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
323	Passes	359
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sevilla 1.34 · Osasuna 1.18. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sevilla 10 · Osasuna 9; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain→

3.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Sevilla to win”. Second comes “Osasuna to win” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Sevilla, 1.11 for Osasuna.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sevilla to win42.6%

Draw28.7%

Osasuna to win28.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sevilla lead at half-time27.3%

Level at half-time43.9%

Osasuna lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sevilla ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Osasuna ahead72.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sevilla: at least 11Actual: 21
Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Sevilla: at least 4Actual: 5
Osasuna: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sevilla score1.34

Attack: Sevilla score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Osasuna score1.18

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–010.5%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.