La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Elche–Real Sociedad

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'ElcheÁ. Rodríguez (assist: Álvaro Núñez)
89'Real SociedadMikel Oyarzabal (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Elche		Real Sociedad
12	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
579	Passes	335
506	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Elche 1.29 · Real Sociedad 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Elche 12 · Real Sociedad 13; on target 3 and 5.
Elche kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “Elche to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Elche, 1.25 for Real Sociedad.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,250 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Elche to win32.0%

Draw29.8%

Real Sociedad to win38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Elche lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time45.1%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Elche ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Real Sociedad ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1250 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Elche: at least 11Actual: 14
Real Sociedad: at least 16Actual: 15

Corners

Elche: at least 3Actual: 1
Real Sociedad: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Elche score1.29

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.05

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Elche's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.7%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.