La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 11

Real Betis–Mallorca

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Real BetisAntony (assist: C. Hernández)
34'Real BetisAntony (assist: Héctor Bellerín)
37'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli (assist: Antony)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Mallorca
15	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
52%	Possession	48%
553	Passes	483
483	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.68 · Mallorca 0.86. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Real Betis 15 · Mallorca 14; on target 8 and 1.

Referee

Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain→

4.46

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.2%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Real Betis, 0.93 for Mallorca.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (1X — Real Betis win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,248 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win62.2%

Draw22.4%

Mallorca to win15.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Betis win or draw84.6%

12 — any result other than a draw77.6%

X2 — draw or Mallorca win37.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.4%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

Real Betis lead at half-time45.1%

Level at half-time41.3%

Mallorca lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Mallorca ahead54.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1248 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 10Actual: 9
Mallorca: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Real Betis: at least 6Actual: 4
Mallorca: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.68

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mallorca's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mallorca score0.86

Attack: Mallorca score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–111.0%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1248 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 124 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.