La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 10

Real Betis–Atletico Madrid

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 27 October 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Atletico MadridG. Simeone (assist: Koke)
45'Atletico MadridÁlex Baena (assist: J. Alvarez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Atletico Madrid
17	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	5
4	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
545	Passes	421
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.20 · Atletico Madrid 1.46. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Real Betis 17 · Atletico Madrid 9; on target 5 and 4.
Real Betis kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain→

4.42

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “Real Betis to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Real Betis, 1.52 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,239 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win28.7%

Draw27.4%

Atletico Madrid to win44.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Real Betis lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time42.4%

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Atletico Madrid ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1239 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 10Actual: 9
Atletico Madrid: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Real Betis: at least 4Actual: 2
Atletico Madrid: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.20

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.46

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.0%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.