La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 10

Rayo Vallecano–Alaves

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Rayo VallecanoAlemão (assist: Pep Chavarría)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Alaves
15	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
419	Passes	358
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.26 · Alaves 1.01. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 15 · Alaves 12; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain→

3.71

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.90 for Alaves.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,238 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win43.6%

Draw30.9%

Alaves to win25.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time37.6%

Level at half-time46.6%

Alaves lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Alaves ahead62.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1238 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 13Actual: 13
Alaves: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 5Actual: 7
Alaves: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.26

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alaves concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alaves score1.01

Attack: Alaves score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.9%0–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.