La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 10

Real Madrid–Barcelona

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'Real MadridA. Lunin · red card
22'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: J. Bellingham)
38'BarcelonaFermín (assist: M. Rashford)
43'Real MadridJ. Bellingham (assist: Eder Militao)
90+10'BarcelonaPedri · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Barcelona
23	Shots	15
10	Shots on target	6
17	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	9
12	Corners	4
5	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
275	Passes	640
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 1.81 · Barcelona 1.45. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Madrid 23 · Barcelona 15; on target 10 and 6.
Barcelona kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

César Soto Grado, Spain→

4.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “Barcelona to win” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.25 for Real Madrid, 1.62 for Barcelona.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,236 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win51.8%

Draw21.7%

Barcelona to win26.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

5	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

Real Madrid lead at half-time47.9%

Level at half-time37.0%

Barcelona lead at half-time15.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level84.9%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Barcelona ahead52.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1236 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 12
Barcelona: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 4Actual: 12
Barcelona: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score1.81

Attack: Real Madrid score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Barcelona score1.45

Attack: Barcelona score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.3%1–18.4%2–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.