La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 10

Real Sociedad–Sevilla

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Real SociedadMikel Oyarzabal (penalty)
30'SevillaN. Gudelj (assist: G. Suazo)
36'Real SociedadMikel Oyarzabal

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Sevilla
5	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	9
2	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
303	Passes	464
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.44 · Sevilla 1.05. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Sociedad 5 · Sevilla 6; on target 3 and 1.
Sevilla kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain→

3.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Real Sociedad, 1.05 for Sevilla.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Real Sociedad win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,230 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win49.2%

Draw27.0%

Sevilla to win23.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Real Sociedad lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time43.8%

Sevilla lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Sevilla ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1230 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 19
Sevilla: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 6Actual: 1
Sevilla: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.44

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sevilla score1.05

Attack: Sevilla score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–010.5%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.