La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 9

Alaves–Valencia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alaves		Valencia
13	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	0
3	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
512	Passes	309
430	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alaves 1.38 · Valencia 0.98. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Alaves 13 · Valencia 5; on target 3 and 2.
Alaves kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain→

5.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Alaves to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Alaves, 0.99 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Alaves win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,229 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alaves to win44.1%

Draw29.5%

Valencia to win26.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Alaves lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time47.1%

Valencia lead at half-time22.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Alaves ahead or level77.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.9%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1229 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alaves: at least 13Actual: 13
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Alaves: at least 5
Valencia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alaves score1.38

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score0.98

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alaves concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–012.3%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.