La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Celta Vigo–Atletico Madrid

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Atletico MadridCarl Starfelt (own goal · assist: P. Barrios)
40'Atletico MadridClément Lenglet · red card
68'Celta VigoI. Aspas

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Atletico Madrid
18	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
726	Passes	501
659	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.12 · Atletico Madrid 1.54. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Celta Vigo 18 · Atletico Madrid 6; on target 4 and 1.
Celta Vigo kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

César Soto Grado, Spain→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Celta Vigo, 1.70 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Atletico Madrid win).
These values were computed from 1,219 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win20.3%

Draw25.7%

Atletico Madrid to win54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Celta Vigo lead at half-time20.5%

Level at half-time42.3%

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time37.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Celta Vigo ahead or level62.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Atletico Madrid ahead79.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1219 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celta Vigo: at least 11Actual: 7
Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Celta Vigo: at least 4Actual: 6
Atletico Madrid: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.12

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.54

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%0–110.8%1–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.