La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Real Sociedad–Rayo Vallecano

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

84'Rayo VallecanoPacha (assist: A. Rațiu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Rayo Vallecano
10	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
421	Passes	414
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.37 · Rayo Vallecano 1.08. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Real Sociedad 10 · Rayo Vallecano 7; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla, Spain→

6.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Real Sociedad, 1.10 for Rayo Vallecano.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Real Sociedad win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,217 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win45.0%

Draw28.0%

Rayo Vallecano to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time46.1%

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Rayo Vallecano ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1217 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 13
Rayo Vallecano: at least 11Actual: 21

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 7
Rayo Vallecano: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.37

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.08

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.4%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.