La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Espanyol–Real Betis

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'EspanyolPol Lozano (assist: C. Riedel)
54'Real BetisC. Hernández (assist: Ricardo Rodríguez)
63'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli (assist: Pablo Fornals)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Espanyol		Real Betis
14	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
449	Passes	467
374	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Espanyol 1.31 · Real Betis 1.27. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Espanyol 14 · Real Betis 12; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Espanyol to win”. Second comes “Real Betis to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Espanyol, 1.32 for Real Betis.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,217 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Espanyol to win37.6%

Draw27.9%

Real Betis to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Espanyol lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time43.9%

Real Betis lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Espanyol ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Real Betis ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1217 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Espanyol: at least 13Actual: 16
Real Betis: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

Espanyol: at least 4Actual: 10
Real Betis: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Espanyol score1.31

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Betis score1.27

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.2%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.