La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Athletic Club–Mallorca

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Athletic ClubI. Williams (penalty)
77'MallorcaSamú Costa (assist: M. Joseph)
82'Athletic ClubAlejandro Rego (assist: Jesús Areso)
90+2'MallorcaAntonio Sánchez · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Mallorca
18	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	5
52%	Possession	48%
442	Passes	416
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.59 · Mallorca 0.74. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Athletic Club 18 · Mallorca 6; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain→

4.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Athletic Club, 0.73 for Mallorca.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (1X — Athletic Club win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,213 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win59.4%

Draw25.6%

Mallorca to win14.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Athletic Club lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time47.2%

Mallorca lead at half-time13.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level86.7%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Mallorca ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1213 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 11Actual: 16
Mallorca: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 6Actual: 7
Mallorca: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.59

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mallorca's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mallorca score0.74

Attack: Mallorca score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.8%2–013.0%1–112.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.