La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Girona–Valencia

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'GironaAlejandro Francés · red card
18'GironaV. Vanat
57'ValenciaD. Lopez (assist: A. Danjuma)
63'GironaArnau Martínez
80'GironaIván Martín · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Girona		Valencia
4	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	7
5	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
387	Passes	461
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Girona 1.35 · Valencia 1.29. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Girona 4 · Valencia 19; on target 4 and 6.
Valencia kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Girona to win”. Second comes “Valencia to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Girona, 1.20 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,212 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Girona to win40.3%

Draw28.4%

Valencia to win31.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	1

2	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Girona win or draw68.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Valencia win59.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Girona lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time43.8%

Valencia lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Girona ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1212 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Girona: at least 10Actual: 13
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Girona: at least 5
Valencia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Girona score1.35

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.29

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Girona concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.5%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1212 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 121 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.