La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 6

Espanyol–Valencia

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 23 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'ValenciaA. Danjuma (assist: L. Rioja)
59'EspanyolL. Cabrera (assist: Edu Expósito)
62'ValenciaHugo Duro (assist: F. Ugrinic)
90'EspanyolJ. Puado (assist: Roberto Fernández)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Espanyol		Valencia
21	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	3
5	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
440	Passes	369
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Espanyol 1.38 · Valencia 1.12. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Espanyol 21 · Valencia 5; on target 10 and 2.
Espanyol kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla, Spain→

6.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Espanyol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Espanyol, 1.06 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (1X — Espanyol win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,191 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Espanyol to win40.9%

Draw29.7%

Valencia to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Espanyol lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time44.3%

Valencia lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Espanyol ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1191 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Espanyol: at least 11Actual: 9
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Espanyol: at least 4Actual: 8
Valencia: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Espanyol score1.38

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.12

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–011.4%0–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.