La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 6

Athletic Club–Girona

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 23 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'GironaA. Ounahi (assist: Bryan Gil)
48'Athletic ClubMikel Jauregizar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Girona
17	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
0	Offsides	5
67%	Possession	33%
600	Passes	305
524	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.92 · Girona 0.76. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Athletic Club 17 · Girona 6; on target 5 and 3.
Athletic Club kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain→

5.24

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.0%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Athletic Club, 0.80 for Girona.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — Athletic Club win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,191 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win65.0%

Draw22.0%

Girona to win13.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Athletic Club win or draw87.0%

12 — any result other than a draw78.0%

X2 — draw or Girona win35.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Athletic Club lead at half-time52.8%

Level at half-time39.4%

Girona lead at half-time7.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level92.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Girona ahead47.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1191 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 11Actual: 19
Girona: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 5Actual: 8
Girona: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.92

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Girona concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Girona score0.76

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–011.8%1–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1191 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 119 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.