La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Barcelona–Valencia

6–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'BarcelonaFermín (assist: Ferran Torres)
53'BarcelonaRaphinha (assist: M. Rashford)
56'BarcelonaFermín (assist: M. Casado)
66'BarcelonaRaphinha
76'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski (assist: Dani Olmo)
86'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski (assist: Marc Bernal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Valencia
24	Shots	2
10	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
4	Offsides	4
72%	Possession	28%
677	Passes	248
616	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 2.30 · Valencia 0.76. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Barcelona 24 · Valencia 2; on target 10 and 1.
Barcelona kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain→

5.20

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.3%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.41 for Barcelona, 0.95 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,179 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win70.3%

Draw18.1%

Valencia to win11.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Barcelona lead at half-time63.6%

Level at half-time31.2%

Valencia lead at half-time5.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Barcelona ahead or level94.8%

12 — not level at half-time68.8%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead36.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1179 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Barcelona: at least 10Actual: 9
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Barcelona: at least 6Actual: 5
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score2.30

Attack: Barcelona score 77% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score0.76

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%2–010.3%1–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.