La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 3

Rayo Vallecano–Barcelona

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 August 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (penalty)
67'Rayo VallecanoF. Perez (assist: I. Palazon)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Barcelona
12	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	4
7	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
338	Passes	444
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.07 · Barcelona 1.83. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 12 · Barcelona 12; on target 6 and 3.
Barcelona kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain→

5.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.3%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Rayo Vallecano, 2.39 for Barcelona.
The highest double chance value is 87.1% (X2 — draw or Barcelona win).
These values were computed from 1,170 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win12.9%

Draw18.7%

Barcelona to win68.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time42.5%

Barcelona lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Barcelona ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1170 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 12Actual: 16
Barcelona: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 4Actual: 9
Barcelona: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.07

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Barcelona score1.83

Attack: Barcelona score 78% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.6%0–29.6%1–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.