Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Lecce–Genoa

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'LecceL. Banda (assist: Santiago Pierotti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lecce		Genoa
9	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
240	Passes	510
175	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lecce 0.97 · Genoa 1.30. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Lecce 9 · Genoa 8; on target 4 and 1.
Genoa kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.30

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Lecce to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Lecce, 0.80 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Lecce win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,515 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lecce to win49.4%

Draw29.8%

Genoa to win20.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lecce lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time48.8%

Genoa lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Lecce ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time51.2%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1515 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lecce: at least 13Actual: 11
Genoa: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Lecce: at least 5Actual: 1
Genoa: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lecce score0.97

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score1.30

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.2%1–114.5%0–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.