Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Cremonese–Como

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'CremoneseD. Okereke · red card
-5'CremoneseMilan Đurić · red card
36'ComoJesús Rodriguez
51'ComoAnastasios Douvikas (assist: Jesús Rodriguez)
55'CremoneseF. Bonazzoli (penalty)
71'CremoneseAlberto Grassi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Como
6	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
30%	Possession	70%
208	Passes	510
143	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 0.74 · Como 1.66. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Cremonese 6 · Como 15; on target 1 and 6.
Como kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

F. Maresca→

5.51

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for Cremonese, 1.95 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (X2 — draw or Como win).
These values were computed from 1,515 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win15.7%

Draw22.7%

Como to win61.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

74'ComoLucas Da Cunha (penalty)

81'ComoLucas Da Cunha (assist: M. Caqueret)

14	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	2

3	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cremonese win or draw38.5%

12 — any result other than a draw77.3%

X2 — draw or Como win84.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cremonese lead at half-time8.2%

Level at half-time40.8%

Como lead at half-time51.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level49.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Como ahead91.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1515 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 12Actual: 14
Como: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Cremonese: at least 3Actual: 2
Como: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score0.74

Attack: Cremonese score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Como concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score1.66

Attack: Como score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%0–211.0%1–211.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1515 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 75 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.