Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Hellas Verona–AS Roma

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Hellas VeronaN. Valentini · red card
56'AS RomaDonyell Malen (assist: Paulo Dybala)
90'AS RomaStephan El Shaarawy (assist: Paulo Dybala)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		AS Roma
8	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
272	Passes	580
205	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 0.79 · AS Roma 1.51. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Hellas Verona 8 · AS Roma 19; on target 3 and 7.
AS Roma kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Sozza→

4.45

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.65 for Hellas Verona, 2.11 for AS Roma.
The highest double chance value is 91.0% (X2 — draw or AS Roma win).
These values were computed from 1,515 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win9.0%

Draw19.1%

AS Roma to win71.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hellas Verona lead at half-time8.7%

Level at half-time40.9%

AS Roma lead at half-time50.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level49.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or AS Roma ahead91.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1515 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 14Actual: 12
AS Roma: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 6
AS Roma: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.79

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AS Roma score1.51

Attack: AS Roma score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–214.6%0–112.7%0–310.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.