Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

AC Milan–Cagliari

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 10%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'AC MilanAlexis Saelemaekers (assist: S. Gimenez)
20'CagliariG. Borrelli
57'CagliariJuan Rodríguez

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Cagliari
16	Shots	25
3	Shots on target	10
13	Shots inside the box	16
9	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
455	Passes	487
395	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.77 · Cagliari 0.80. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots AC Milan 16 · Cagliari 25; on target 3 and 10.

Referee

M. Guida→

3.63

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.0%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for AC Milan, 0.66 for Cagliari.
The highest double chance value is 90.3% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,515 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win70.0%

Draw20.3%

Cagliari to win9.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AC Milan win or draw90.3%

12 — any result other than a draw79.7%

X2 — draw or Cagliari win30.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

AC Milan lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time46.8%

Cagliari lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Cagliari ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1515 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 11Actual: 8
Cagliari: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

AC Milan: at least 5Actual: 5
Cagliari: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.77

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Cagliari's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cagliari score0.80

Attack: Cagliari score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.6%1–013.3%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1515 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 113 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.