Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Napoli–Udinese

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'NapoliRasmus Højlund (assist: Kevin De Bruyne)
64'UdineseC. Kabasele · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Udinese
14	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	3
4	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
700	Passes	332
647	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.58 · Udinese 0.86. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Napoli 14 · Udinese 10; on target 6 and 3.
Napoli kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Zanotti→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.7%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Napoli, 0.87 for Udinese.
The highest double chance value is 85.3% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,514 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win62.7%

Draw22.6%

Udinese to win14.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Napoli lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time43.9%

Udinese lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Udinese ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1514 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 10Actual: 3
Udinese: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Napoli: at least 5Actual: 3
Udinese: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.58

Attack: Napoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Udinese score0.86

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.6%1–111.5%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.